1

Launch before 10 November

Starting late is the most expensive mistake we see. Meta sells its advertising space like an auction: lots of businesses bidding to appear in front of the same people. In November, nearly every shop in the country piles in at once, so the price of getting seen shoots up.

The numbers show it clearly. One large study tracked what it cost brands to put their ad in front of 1,000 people (the trade calls this the CPM). That cost barely moved until early November, then it jumped the week of 10 November: 27% higher a week before Black Friday, 84% higher on Black Friday itself, and still a fifth above normal in early December.

There is a second reason to start early. When you switch on a new campaign, Meta spends the first few days working out who is most likely to buy, and results are jumpy until it does. Begin in the first week of November and that settling-in period is behind you before the expensive weeks arrive.

If you have never advertised before, or you switched everything off after last Christmas, start earlier still. A brand-new account gives Meta nothing to go on: no record of who bought last time, no list of past visitors to win back. It needs more time, and a little more budget, to learn who your buyers are. Give it two to three weeks before Black Friday so it is not still figuring that out on your most expensive days.

2

Fix your tracking before you spend a euro

Meta can only find you more buyers if it can see who is already buying from you. Before you launch, check three things:

• The Meta Pixel is switched on and recording sales. The Pixel is a small piece of code on your website that tells Meta what visitors do, including when they buy and how much they spend.
• Those sales roughly match the orders you see in your Shopify or WooCommerce admin for the same days. If Meta is under-counting, it is working half-blind.
• Your product catalogue is connected, so Meta can show people the exact items they looked at. These automatic product ads are among the best performers at Christmas.

Since Apple changed its privacy settings, the Pixel on its own now misses a chunk of sales, because it depends on the shopper’s web browser. There is a second method, called the Conversions API, that sends the same information straight from your website’s server, which Apple’s change does not block. With both switched on, Meta sees far more of what is really happening and spends your money more accurately. If none of this is familiar, our data measurement and tracking team can set it up and check it for you in a few days.

3

Set your budget from your margin, not a round number

A lot of shops pick a Christmas budget by gut feel. There is a simple sum that works better. It tells you the point where your ads start making money instead of losing it.

Work out the profit margin on what you sell, then divide 1 by it. If half of each sale is profit (a 50% margin), you need €2 in sales for every €1 of ads just to break even. If your margin is 40%, you need €2.50. The trade calls this your break-even ROAS, which only means return on ad spend. Once your ads beat that number, every extra euro of sales above it is profit.

Then work backwards from your typical order. If a customer usually spends €50 and you can afford to pay €15 to win that sale, a €1,500 budget should bring in roughly 100 orders. Just remember that sales cost more to win in the last two weeks of November, so leave room for that from the start.

4

Let Meta’s AI do the heavy lifting

For most shops at Christmas, the simplest setup is also the best. Meta has an automated campaign type called Advantage+ (you will see that name when you set one up). Instead of you choosing exactly who sees your ads, Meta’s system tries them across a wide group of people and quickly leans into whoever is buying.

In a fast-moving period like Christmas, that speed usually beats picking audiences by hand, because the system reacts to what is working faster than a person can. We run Advantage+ as the main campaign for most of our ecommerce clients over the season.

It is not the answer to everything. Keep one separate campaign that you control by hand for the people who already know you (more on them in the next step) and for moments you need a firm grip, like pushing a single offer or protecting a tight budget. A strong Christmas setup is usually Advantage+ doing the heavy lifting, with one hand-controlled campaign running alongside it.

5

Build an audience of people who know you

The people who buy from you on Black Friday are usually people who already knew you beforehand. Use the cheaper weeks of early November to get in front of as many likely customers as you can, so you are a familiar name by the time they are ready to spend.

• Show short videos or scrolling picture ads that introduce your products and why they make good gifts. The aim here is simply to be seen by lots of new people while it is still cheap.
• Collect emails and phone numbers by offering early access to your Black Friday deals. Contacting these people again later costs you nothing.
• Quietly build lists of people to reach again: anyone who watched your videos, visited your site, or has bought from you before.

There are really two jobs here, and the balance between them changes as the season goes on. Early in November, aim to spend about 70% reaching brand-new people and 30% reminding those who already know you. By Black Friday week, tip that the other way, because people who already know you are far cheaper to turn into buyers than strangers at peak prices. For those reminder lists, we usually go back 180 days for website visitors and 365 days for past customers. Our guide to using AI in Facebook ads explains how Meta finds these people for you.

6

Plan your offer around Black Friday and Cyber Monday

Black Friday falls on 27 November 2026, with Cyber Monday on 30 November. Stores that have their offer and their ads ready well in advance tend to get the most out of them.

AIB’s data shows the shape of the peak. On Black Friday 2024, the busiest hour for online spending was 10am to 11am, with 19 transactions every second. Black Friday was the top online day of the year for clothing, jewellery, hardware and department stores, while Cyber Monday took the lead for electrical goods. Have your ads, emails and site banners live the evening before, not at 9am on the day.

On the offer itself, PwC found that 50% off is the discount threshold Irish shoppers find most attractive. If your margins can’t support that, don’t force it. Bundles, gifts with purchase, free delivery or early access for subscribers can perform just as well without eating into the profit you worked out in step 3.

7

Push hard into the last shipping days, then switch to gift cards

Irish shoppers leave a lot to the last minute. Retail Ireland found that more than a third of adults wait until December to make their main Christmas purchases. AIB’s busiest in store day of 2024 was 23 December, when its customers spent €114 million.

Use that urgency in your ads:

• Check your courier’s final delivery date for Christmas and build countdown messaging around it.
• Spend more on reminding people who looked at your products, or started a basket but did not check out.
• Once the delivery cut-off passes, switch your ads to digital gift cards. The CCPC found that 63% of people received at least one gift voucher last Christmas, so it’s a gift Irish shoppers are used to giving.

8

Keep going into January

Ad costs usually ease in the last week of December as other advertisers pull back, and January brings sales shoppers, gift card holders and people spending their Christmas money.

Go back to your Christmas customers with products that go well with what they already bought, and invite gift-card recipients to come and spend them. A customer who bought once in December is far cheaper to win back in January than a new one. And if the campaign made money, it’s worth asking whether you want to switch it off at all.